WC 2026 — Tournament Probabilities
Updated as of: Jun 09, 2026 05:00 PM MDT
Each column self-scales (min → max within that column).
· click a column header to sort
| Team | Grp | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Finals | Champion | Adv As 3rd | Grp 1st | Grp 2nd | Grp 3rd | Grp 4th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SpainESP | H | 99.5% | 74.8% | 53.8% | 41.2% | 28.2% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 78.9% | 18.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | |
 BrazilBRA | C | 98.7% | 72.5% | 52.8% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 67.3% | 24.6% | 7.4% | 0.8% | |
 ArgentinaARG | J | 97.9% | 64.2% | 48.3% | 31.9% | 18.9% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 70.8% | 20.9% | 6.9% | 1.4% | |
 EnglandENG | L | 97.7% | 71.8% | 48.5% | 29.6% | 18.0% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 67.0% | 25.1% | 6.4% | 1.5% | |
 FranceFRA | I | 96.6% | 72.2% | 47.0% | 30.3% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 61.3% | 25.8% | 10.8% | 2.1% | |
 PortugalPOR | K | 95.9% | 67.7% | 43.3% | 25.6% | 14.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 54.5% | 33.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | |
 ColombiaCOL | K | 92.7% | 59.8% | 33.0% | 18.2% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 11.7% | 38.9% | 43.0% | 13.8% | 4.4% | |
 NetherlandsNED | F | 91.7% | 49.5% | 34.6% | 19.5% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 12.2% | 54.6% | 26.0% | 13.3% | 6.1% | |
 GermanyGER | E | 98.2% | 64.8% | 33.5% | 18.9% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 12.4% | 57.6% | 28.4% | 13.1% | 0.9% | |
 BelgiumBEL | G | 94.8% | 67.0% | 39.6% | 17.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 11.0% | 59.6% | 24.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | |
 MoroccoMAR | C | 90.1% | 47.0% | 27.1% | 12.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 21.3% | 24.2% | 46.6% | 24.5% | 4.6% | |
 CroatiaCRO | L | 90.0% | 47.4% | 21.5% | 10.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 14.6% | 27.3% | 49.6% | 17.3% | 5.8% | |
 UruguayURU | H | 90.1% | 38.5% | 20.6% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 12.8% | 18.8% | 59.8% | 16.4% | 5.0% | |
 SwitzerlandSUI | B | 94.3% | 59.5% | 25.0% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 11.8% | 52.1% | 31.0% | 13.2% | 3.6% | |
 NorwayNOR | I | 83.4% | 43.8% | 19.9% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 27.2% | 22.6% | 38.1% | 30.0% | 9.3% | |
 MexicoMEX | A | 92.8% | 60.7% | 26.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 10.7% | 58.0% | 24.9% | 12.0% | 5.1% | |
 TurkeyTUR | D | 79.9% | 47.8% | 20.8% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 20.6% | 35.6% | 27.9% | 21.3% | 15.2% | |
 AustriaAUT | J | 78.2% | 28.4% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 30.0% | 16.1% | 38.7% | 32.4% | 12.8% | |
 EcuadorECU | E | 91.7% | 43.6% | 16.4% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 27.7% | 26.3% | 40.0% | 30.3% | 3.4% | |
 United StatesUSA | D | 77.7% | 44.8% | 19.0% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 21.9% | 32.7% | 28.0% | 22.0% | 17.2% | |
 Czech RepublicCZE | A | 74.7% | 40.2% | 14.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 26.6% | 22.0% | 32.8% | 27.3% | 17.9% | |
 SenegalSEN | I | 73.0% | 33.2% | 13.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 38.4% | 14.8% | 30.2% | 39.9% | 15.2% | |
 AlgeriaALG | J | 72.0% | 23.5% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 38.3% | 11.8% | 32.7% | 39.3% | 16.2% | |
 JapanJPN | F | 70.5% | 22.7% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 28.5% | 20.9% | 29.5% | 28.1% | 21.5% | |
 EgyptEGY | G | 74.6% | 33.6% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 29.6% | 19.5% | 33.0% | 31.2% | 16.3% | |
 Ivory CoastCIV | E | 83.7% | 32.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 45.2% | 15.8% | 30.1% | 47.8% | 6.3% | |
 SwedenSWE | F | 66.9% | 21.4% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 32.4% | 17.0% | 28.2% | 30.4% | 24.4% | |
 IranIRN | G | 72.5% | 32.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 31.6% | 17.8% | 31.7% | 32.7% | 17.7% | |
 ParaguayPAR | D | 61.1% | 27.8% | 8.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 32.3% | 18.1% | 23.3% | 28.2% | 30.5% | |
 ScotlandSCO | C | 67.8% | 22.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 51.0% | 8.0% | 25.2% | 50.7% | 16.1% | |
 AustraliaAUS | D | 54.3% | 22.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 36.6% | 13.7% | 20.8% | 28.5% | 37.1% | |
 CanadaCAN | B | 89.9% | 41.2% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 18.3% | 35.7% | 37.8% | 20.3% | 6.3% | |
 South KoreaKOR | A | 62.0% | 26.6% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 34.6% | 13.9% | 26.6% | 32.1% | 27.3% | |
 TunisiaTUN | F | 41.4% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 42.4% | 7.5% | 16.4% | 28.2% | 48.0% | |
 Bosnia & Herz.BIH | B | 62.6% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 46.2% | 10.2% | 23.5% | 42.7% | 23.6% | |
 Cape VerdeCPV | H | 30.2% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.4% | 1.2% | 11.1% | 41.3% | 46.5% | |
 CuraçaoCUW | E | 5.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 64.5% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 8.8% | 89.5% | |
 DR CongoCOD | K | 36.0% | 7.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 57.8% | 3.5% | 11.7% | 39.2% | 45.6% | |
 GhanaGHA | L | 37.7% | 7.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 56.1% | 3.3% | 13.2% | 40.1% | 43.4% | |
 HaitiHAI | C | 11.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 64.0% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 17.4% | 78.5% | |
 IraqIRQ | I | 17.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 57.6% | 1.3% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 73.4% | |
 JordanJOR | J | 19.9% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.2% | 1.4% | 7.7% | 21.4% | 69.6% | |
 New ZealandNZL | G | 26.5% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48.7% | 3.1% | 10.5% | 23.9% | 62.5% | |
 PanamaPAN | L | 32.6% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.5% | 2.4% | 12.1% | 36.2% | 49.3% | |
 QatarQAT | B | 22.7% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 57.5% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 23.8% | 66.5% | |
 Saudi ArabiaKSA | H | 28.6% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 59.5% | 1.1% | 10.5% | 40.2% | 48.2% | |
 South AfricaRSA | A | 39.0% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 44.3% | 6.1% | 15.7% | 28.6% | 49.7% | |
 UzbekistanUZB | K | 34.5% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 57.2% | 3.2% | 11.6% | 37.8% | 47.4% |