2026 FIFA World Cup
Third Place Dashboard

Current third-place standings

#	Grp	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	F	SwedenSWE	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
2	E	EcuadorECU	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
3	B	Bosnia & Herz.BIH	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
4	D	ParaguayPAR	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
5	I	SenegalSEN	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
6	G	IranIRN	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
7	L	CroatiaCRO	2	1	0	1	3	4	-1	3
8	A	South KoreaKOR	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
9	J	AlgeriaALG	2	1	0	1	2	4	-2	3
10	C	ScotlandSCO	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
11	H	UruguayURU	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2
12	K	DR CongoCOD	2	0	1	1	1	2	-1	1

Projected third-place standings · most likely

#	Grp	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	F	SwedenSWE	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
2	K	DR CongoCOD	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
3	E	EcuadorECU	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	L	GhanaGHA	3	1	1	1	1	1	0	4
5	B	Bosnia & Herz.BIH	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	J	AlgeriaALG	3	1	1	1	3	5	-2	4
7	D	ParaguayPAR	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	I	SenegalSEN	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	G	IranIRN	3	1	0	2	3	3	0	3
10	A	South KoreaKOR	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	C	ScotlandSCO	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	H	UruguayURU	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

The cut line · what it takes to be the last team in

The 8th and final third-place berth almost always goes to a team on 3 points. A team on just 2 points sneaks in about 0% of the time.

3 pts

100%

2 pts

0%

4 pts

0%

Goal difference is the tiebreaker — the last team in carries an average goal difference of -0.2, so the bubble usually comes down to who lost by less.

As it stands

PtsGDGF

Croatia3-13

South Korea3-12

Algeria3-22

Scotland3-31

Projected

PtsGDGF

Paraguay4-22

Senegal3+28

Iran3+03

South Korea3-12

What each team needs on the final matchday

Advance odds if they win, draw, or lose their last group game.

Grp	Team	If win	If draw	If loss	Verdict
K	Uzbekistan	0%	0%	0%	NEEDS HELP
L	Croatia	100%	100%	19%	DRAW IS ENOUGH
J	Austria	100%	100%	40%	DRAW IS ENOUGH
J	Algeria	100%	100%	0%	DRAW IS ENOUGH
K	DR Congo	100%	0%	0%	WIN AND IN

Qualification odds by team

Tap any team for its final-game odds and what each result means for advancing.

Team	Grp	Finish 3rd	Advance as 3rd	Advance
Bosnia & Herz.BIHADV	B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
EcuadorECUADV	E	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
ParaguayPARADV	D	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
SenegalSENADV	I	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
SwedenSWEADV	F	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
IranIRNALIVE	G	100.0%	85.4%	85.4%
GhanaGHAADV	L	60.4%	60.4%	100.0%
DR CongoCODALIVE	K	71.5%	44.4%	44.6%
AlgeriaALGALIVE	J	70.6%	39.5%	68.8%
South KoreaKORALIVE	A	100.0%	31.8%	31.8%
CroatiaCROALIVE	L	39.6%	26.6%	87.0%
AustriaAUTALIVE	J	29.4%	11.7%	82.3%
PortugalPORADV	K	0.2%	0.2%	100.0%
ScotlandSCOALIVE	C	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UzbekistanUZBALIVE	K	28.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UruguayURUELIM	H	100.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%

Tiebreak watch · most likely to land on the cut line

The ten teams most likely to finish 3rd on 3 points — the usual cut-line total. Current record vs projected final, where goal difference then goals scored break the tie.

Grp	Team	Pts	GD	GF	Proj GD	Proj GF	Adv
G	IranIRN	3	+0	3	+0	3	85.4%
C	ScotlandSCO	3	-3	1	-3	1	<0.1%
I	SenegalSEN	3	+2	8	+2	8	100.0%
A	South KoreaKOR	3	-1	2	-1	2	31.8%
J	AlgeriaALG	3	-2	2	-2	3	39.5%
J	AustriaAUT	3	+0	3	-1	3	11.7%
K	UzbekistanUZB	0	-7	1	-6	2	<0.1%
L	CroatiaCRO	3	-1	3	-1	4	26.6%
J	ArgentinaARG	6	+5	5	NA	NA	<0.1%
D	AustraliaAUS	4	+0	2	NA	NA	<0.1%

Path difficulty · easiest route in as a 3rd

Ranked by expected Round-of-32 difficulty across every opponent you might draw by advancing as a 3rd place team. Tap a team for its full opponent spread and projected run.

#	Grp	Team	Likely R32	Ease
1	B	Bosnia & Herz.BIH	United StatesUSA
2	A	South KoreaKOR	BelgiumBEL
3	J	AustriaAUT	BelgiumBEL
4	J	AlgeriaALG	BelgiumBEL
5	G	IranIRN	SwitzerlandSUI
6	D	ParaguayPAR	GermanyGER
7	E	EcuadorECU	MexicoMEX
8	C	ScotlandSCO	MexicoMEX
9	I	SenegalSEN	EnglandENG
10	K	UzbekistanUZB	EnglandENG
11	L	CroatiaCRO	ColombiaCOL
12	K	DR CongoCOD	EnglandENG
13	L	GhanaGHA	ColombiaCOL
14	K	PortugalPOR	EnglandENG
15	F	SwedenSWE	FranceFRA

The games that decide the last spots

Remaining group games ranked by how much the result swings who advances.

J

AlgeriavAustria

K

DR CongovUzbekistan

L

CroatiavGhana

J

ArgentinavJordan

K

ColombiavPortugal

L

EnglandvPanama

Who each group sends — most likely 3rd place

Grp	Likely 3rd	Adv as 3rd	Group sends a 3rd
B	Bosnia & Herz.	100.0%	100.0%
D	Paraguay	100.0%	100.0%
E	Ecuador	100.0%	100.0%
F	Sweden	100.0%	100.0%
I	Senegal	100.0%	100.0%
L	Ghana	60.4%	87.0%
G	Iran	85.4%	85.4%
J	Algeria	39.5%	51.2%
K	DR Congo	44.4%	44.6%
A	South Korea	31.8%	31.8%
C	Scotland	<0.1%	<0.1%
H	Uruguay	<0.1%	<0.1%

What a points total is worth for a 3rd-place team

Goal difference sensitivity · advance odds by points total